Since assuming office on May 29, 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has embarked on ambitious reforms aimed at addressing Nigeria’s economic, social, and security challenges. This article examines key developmental strides under his government, supported by statistical evidence, and provides a critical analysis of their impact, strengths, and shortcomings as of April 2025.
Economic Reforms and Statistical Evidence
1. Foreign Exchange Liberalization and Debt Clearance
Statistic: The Tinubu administration liberalized the foreign exchange market, leading to the clearance of a $7 billion forex backlog inherited in May 2023.
Impact: The naira depreciated significantly, moving from N450/$ in January 2023 to N1,035/$ by December 2023, a depreciation of over 50%. Despite this, the policy is credited with improving foreign currency inflows, with foreign reserves increasing from $35 billion in May 2023 to an estimated higher value by mid-2024 (exact figures for 2025 are unavailable).
Analysis: The forex liberalization aimed to attract foreign investment and stabilize the economy in the long term. While it cleared significant backlogs, the immediate depreciation of the naira exacerbated inflation, which reached an 18-year high of over 22% in 2023. The policy’s benefits, such as increased foreign direct investment (FDI), are yet to fully materialize, with FDI recorded at only $448.95 million between April 2023 and March 2024, far below the claimed $30 billion in commitments. Critics argue that the lack of robust mitigation measures deepened economic hardship for ordinary Nigerians, particularly in the short term.
2. Fuel Subsidy Removal
Statistic: The government removed a fuel subsidy costing over $10 billion annually in 2022. However, partial subsidization was quietly resumed in late 2023 to mitigate inflation.
Impact: The subsidy removal led to a sharp increase in fuel prices, contributing to inflation and public discontent. Posts on X highlight mixed sentiments, with some praising the long-term fiscal relief and others noting persistent poverty and food insecurity.
Analysis: The subsidy removal was a bold step to redirect funds to critical sectors like health and education. However, the partial reintroduction of subsidies indicates challenges in balancing fiscal discipline with public welfare. The policy’s success hinges on effective reinvestment of savings, which has shown progress but remains insufficient to offset immediate economic pressures on citizens.
3. Budgetary Increases in Health and Education
Statistic: The 2025 federal budget allocated N3.52 trillion to education (a 304% increase from 2022) and N2.48 trillion to health (a 242% increase). Insurance coverage expanded to 19.8 million Nigerians by 2024.
Impact: Initiatives like the Health Sector Renewal Investment Initiative (NHSRII) and the deployment of 774 National Health Fellows across local governments have strengthened primary healthcare. Education reforms, including the HOPE-EDU program, aim to improve access and quality.
Analysis: These budgetary increases signal a shift toward human capital development, a critical need in a country with high poverty rates and educational deficits. The expansion of health insurance and health fellows is a positive step, but challenges like inadequate infrastructure and workforce retention persist. The long-term impact depends on sustained funding and effective implementation, as past administrations have struggled with similar commitments.
4. Revenue Growth and FAAC Allocations
Statistic: Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursements to states grew significantly, with Osun State’s allocation rising from N3.7 billion in November 2022 to N11 billion in February 2025, a 215% increase. Some states saw up to 300% growth.
Impact: Increased FAAC allocations have empowered states to fund local projects, contributing to infrastructure and social programs.
Analysis: The revenue growth stems from subsidy removal and improved tax collection, reflecting fiscal progress. However, the uneven distribution of benefits across states and the lack of transparency in some state-level expenditures raise concerns about equitable development. The administration must ensure these funds translate into tangible outcomes for citizens.
Social Development and Child Welfare
1. Progress in Child Welfare
Statistic: The 2024 UNICEF Situational Analysis reported improved birth registration rates, reduced child mortality, and increased childhood immunization coverage. However, high poverty rates and inadequate education access remain challenges.
Impact: Policies under Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda have contributed to these gains, particularly in health metrics.
Analysis: Improvements in child welfare metrics are commendable, but persistent issues like poverty (affecting over 60% of Nigerians) and violence against children indicate that social safety nets are still weak. The administration’s focus on data-driven policies, such as real-time tracking of program delivery, is promising but requires broader coverage to address systemic gaps.
Security and Human Rights
1. Security Efforts
Statistic: Tinubu claimed the elimination of over 300 Boko Haram and bandit commanders within one year, though this could not be independently verified.
Impact: Despite these claims, insecurity persists, with banditry, kidnappings, and insurgency ongoing in the northwest, northeast, and southeast.
Analysis: The administration’s focus on security is critical, given Nigeria’s challenges with terrorism and organized crime. However, the lack of verifiable data and continued attacks suggest limited progress. The absence of comprehensive strategies to address root causes, such as poverty and unemployment, undermines security efforts.
2. Human Rights Concerns
Statistic: Amnesty International reported that Tinubu’s administration failed to address human rights violations after six months in office, citing issues like media freedom violations and attacks on journalists during the 2023 elections.
Impact: At least 42 journalists were attacked or harassed during the 2023 elections, reflecting ongoing threats to free expression.
Analysis: The administration’s human rights record is a significant weakness. While Tinubu has pledged to uphold democratic values, the lack of action on past violations and restrictions on media freedom raise concerns about governance transparency. Addressing these issues is crucial for building public trust and international credibility.
Critical Analysis
Strengths
Bold Economic Reforms: The liberalization of the forex market and subsidy removal demonstrate a commitment to long-term fiscal sustainability, with tangible outcomes like the $7 billion backlog clearance and increased FAAC allocations.
Investment in Human Capital: Significant budgetary increases in health and education, coupled with initiatives like NHSRII and HOPE-EDU, show a strategic focus on addressing Nigeria’s human development deficits.
Revenue Mobilization: Improved tax collection and subsidy savings have boosted government revenue, enabling higher state allocations and project funding.
Weaknesses
Short-Term Economic Hardship: Policies like subsidy removal and forex liberalization have worsened inflation and poverty, with insufficient immediate relief measures. The IMF noted that these policies have yet to benefit most Nigerians.
Security and Human Rights Gaps: Persistent insecurity and unaddressed human rights violations undermine public confidence and governance credibility.
Implementation Challenges: While budgetary allocations are impressive, inefficiencies in project execution and uneven state-level outcomes limit impact.
Opportunities
Sustained Reforms: Continued focus on health, education, and infrastructure could position Nigeria as a regional leader in human development if implementation improves.
Youth Engagement: With a median age of 18, leveraging Nigeria’s youth through technology and empowerment programs (e.g., the National Youth Empowerment Scheme) could drive economic growth.
Global Partnerships: Loans from the World Bank ($1.5 billion) and African Development Bank ($1 billion) provide opportunities to fund critical reforms, provided they are managed transparently.
Threats
Public Discontent: Rising inflation and poverty could fuel protests, as seen in August 2024, threatening political stability.
Corruption Allegations: Tinubu’s history of corruption allegations, though unproven, could resurface and erode trust if transparency falters.
Regional Disparities: Uneven development across states risks exacerbating regional tensions, particularly in marginalized areas like the southeast.
Conclusion
President Tinubu’s administration has made notable strides in economic restructuring, human capital investment, and revenue mobilization, supported by statistical evidence like the $7 billion forex backlog clearance, 304% education budget increase, and 215% FAAC growth. However, these reforms have come at the cost of short-term economic hardship, with inflation and poverty remaining high. Security challenges and human rights concerns further complicate the government’s record. While the administration’s long-term vision holds promise, its success depends on addressing immediate citizen needs, improving implementation, and fostering transparency. As Nigeria navigates these challenges, Tinubu’s ability to balance bold reforms with inclusive governance will define his legacy.