The rise of political movements inspired by the recently concluded American and Ghanaian elections offers a glimmer of hope for the opposition, ISMAEEL UTHMAN writes
In the wake of the American and Ghanaian presidential elections, several political movements have emerged in Nigeria, each aiming to challenge President Bola Tinubu’s re-election in 2027. In both the United States and Ghana, the opposition defeated the ruling parties in landslide victories.
In the US, former President Donald Trump of the Republican Party defeated Kamala Harris, the incumbent Vice President and candidate of the Democratic Party, in the November 5 election. Similarly, Ghanaian Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, the presidential candidate of the New Patriotic Party, lost to the National Democratic Congress’s candidate, John Mahama, in the December 7, 2024 elections.
Following Trump’s election, opposition parties expressed hope that they could replicate the US and Ghanaian political trajectories in Nigeria. The outcome of the Ghanaian election has injected a renewed sense of optimism among opposition parties, as they step up their political games towards significant political realignment.
On November 26, it was reported that the 2023 presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, Atiku Abubakar, and his Labour Party counterpart, Peter Obi, and former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, had concluded plans to form a new political party or adopting an existing one to form a coalition ahead of 2027.
After the report, Obi and Atiku met again in Adamawa, Yola State, on November 30, but the two camps of the political leaders denied having discussions for a joint ticket ahead of the 2027 election.
However, Atiku’s spokesperson, Paul Ibe, later revealed that the two political leaders had been engaging in discussions to form a united front against the APC.
Ibe, who appeared on Channels Television’s Politics Today programme on December 10, said, “The truth of the matter is that Atiku Abubakar has promoted opposition parties to work together, to come together; that is the only way they can kick out this incompetent and clueless government. And I believe that discussions have been going on.”
This was as the Peoples Redemption Party and African Democratic Congress confirmed that they had initiated discussions with each other on a potential merger ahead of the elections.
Similarly, some parties under the aegis of the Coalition of United Political Parties and the Social Democratic Party had also expressed readiness for talks of a possible alliance, saying the country needed more than just a coalition of only Atiku and Obi.
Also, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, last Saturday, hosted former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and former Cross River State Governor, Donald Duke, in Abeokuta, Ogun State. According to Kwankwaso, the discussions centred on “significant national issues, including the future of politics and governance in Nigeria.”
A former Director General of the Progressives Governors Forum, Salihu Lukman, in an open letter titled, ‘Satanic Leadership and Nigeria’s Boiling Point,’ on Monday, called on Obasanjo to lead efforts to unify opposition parties to challenge Tinubu in 2027.
Lukman warned that disunity within opposition parties would make it easier for President Tinubu to secure a second term. He called on Obasanjo, Gen. Yakubu Gowon (retd), Gen. Ibrahim Babangida(retd), Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar(retd), Goodluck Jonathan, and Muhammadu Buhari to lead efforts to rally opposition parties.
While the rise of these political movements brings hope, it also presents significant challenges. The political landscape in Nigeria is complex. In Nigeria’s recent political history, only once has an opposition party defeated a ruling party. In 2015, Buhari of the APC defeated Jonathan of the PDP.
Buhari had contested and lost three presidential elections before his party, Congress of Progressives Change, the Action Congress of Nigeria, and a faction of the PDP (new PDP) merged in 2013 to form the APC. The merger provided a bigger platform to achieve his presidential ambition in 2015 and for his re-election in 2019.
If the coalition of major opposition leaders works out (like that of the APC in 2013), it will pose a serious challenge to President Tinubu, who won his first election with a 1.8 million vote margin.
In the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu polled 8,794,726 (36.61%) to defeat the runner-up, Atiku Abubakar, who secured 6,984,520 (29.07%). Obi, the LP candidate, had 6,101,533 votes (25.40%) while Kwankwaso, the candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, polled 1,496,687 (6.40%). Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso’s votes totalled 14,582,740.
Beyond the coalition of these individuals, many analysts believe that President Tinubu would face the challenge of convincing people for his re-election because of his economic crisis, which the opposition has already capitalised on to discredit his government. Analysts argue that a similar scenario won the election for Ghana’s opposition leader, John Mahama, as the country’s economy plummeted, went through a debt crisis, default, and currency devaluation.
Analysing why the opposition won the Ghanaian election, the Guardian Weekly, an international news magazine based in London, said, “Economic hardship was a major factor: at one point, inflation was as high as 50% and the cedi plummeted to historic lows while the number of taxes increased. A banking sector purge that was hailed by economists but led to thousands of job losses also angered voters, as did a bloated government in which several relatives of the president and ruling party members served.”
Currently, Nigeria’s inflation is at 34.6 per cent while the country’s debt stands at N134.3tn. The rise in inflation is largely driven by food price increases, which continue to place a strain on Nigerian households.
Commenting, the National Publicity Secretary of the PDP, Debo Ologunagba, expressed optimism that there would be a replica of the US and Ghanaian elections in Nigeria, considering the similarities in the two countries’ economies.
But Ologunagba said the replica could only be achieved if the Independent National Electoral Commission allowed elections to be free and fair and respected the people’s will.
He said, “You will see the replica if INEC allows the election to be free and fair. The American and Ghanaian elections reflect the will of the people, and you have independent electoral bodies that are willing to respect that will.
“The challenge of elections in Nigeria is not just the people. Yes, the APC has promoted poverty as an act of governance that has impaired the capacity to make rational decisions. But beyond that, even when the people make a decision and vote, INEC does not allow the people’s will to prevail as expressed in the ballot.
“INEC has been the major challenge for the electoral process, and so the issue of the opposition party winning will be a mirage, except INEC is informed, and INEC leadership is certain that it allows the will of the people to prevail. But there is a snag here, and that is a caution for the country.”
He warned of grievous consequences if the will of the people was not allowed to prevail.
“When you don’t allow the will of the people to prevail, the consequences for democracy can be grave,” Ologunagba stated.
The PDP spokesperson said the Ghanaian election gave hope to the Nigerian opposition for the 2027 presidential election.
“The Ghanaians were angry because of the ill-advised policies of the government in that country, and the people expressed it.
“In Nigeria, you can feel the economic hardship. You know that the twin policy of irresponsible floating of the naira, and withdrawal of subsidy on petroleum products without any cushioning effect, is what brought us to this level.
“So, when you have a government that does not respect the will of the people, and how the welfare of the people matters under the constitution, what happened in Ghana is the consequence of such behaviour.”
Similarly, the NNPP also stated that the Ghanaian election had increased the opposition’s hope of winning the 2027 presidential election.
“The Ghanaian election has given us confidence as opposition parties that we just have to keep working,” said the spokesman for the NNPP, Ladipo Johnson.
However, Johnson maintained that for Nigeria to have a replica of the Ghanaian election, the institutions must allow the will of the people to prevail.
He said, “The Ghanaian election has increased our hope. We hope that Nigerians, especially those in authority, like INEC, the police, and others see that the will of the people must be allowed to prevail. That is the key to it.